by smckenzie
Well just two things for now:1) Patronage
If you do a 4 CP patronage of a 1 vp artist/scientist, you get at least 1vp on a 7 or better, which is 21/36. You might get a VP and a bonus, you might get 2vp, you might get 2vp and a bonus
So I wonder where the 50/50 on patronage comes from?
A +1 patronage is the worst you can do, a 1 artist with 2cp.
A 4CP patronage on Dee is +5, at least 1 VP on a 5 or better. You can get Observatory and do yet another patronage with yet another +2.
Some day I'll take a look more closely at marriage, but I suspect some funny math in people's marriage calculations.
2) Jane Fonda versus John Wayne
I said: p.e.
"England is 3 keys away from military victory,"
"Try to build your fleet before the Spanish attack you. In fact having your fleet ready will tend to discourage attacks against you."
"You should be looking to swipe Pope/Venice/Tunis militarily when the opportunity presents itself."
So, I'm hardly a peacenik advocating growing your hair long, pot smoking, protesting, listening to punk rock, badmouthing your country, total disrespect for John Wayne.
My last game, France lost, but never lost any of it's home keys!
SO I add in:
"France is 2 keys away from military victory."
Scotland's Diplomacy came out once and French got it.
Every protestant rebellion in France Failed. Between bad rolls for the Prots, French garrisoning everything and keeping keys catholic.
So a great deal of luck, but France is only two key's away. Given the common Eng Strategy to not attack Scotland t1, and common Prot strategy to do conversions late on t1, and small ones. France has considerable opportunity at start for a military win.
I actually said:
"Shutting the Protestants down is what will allow you to be a real Military Power"
My first 3 solo games everyone went John Wayne. 2 French Victories on Marriages, 1 Protestant Auto win on T7. HRE had 24 vp on T6, blew both his patronage die rolls on t6 and Protestants won T7. I believe It was after this I posted ".. is this a wargame.."
Solo play, my players tend to cooperate to keep the game going. Playing with other players it is more difficult to get 5 guys to attack another. Someone doesn't see it that way, someone loses interest in the game. In several other solo games the guy who was winning did eventually win, just a turn or two later.
If all 6 guys go John Wayne all the way, every time, you will always get a John Wayne victory.
If all 6 guys go Jane Fonda all the way, every time, you will always
get a Jane Fonda victory.
In some hypothetical 6 player game where each side is equally strong, and each player equally good, everyone has a 1/6 chance of winning at start, and our strategy is to try to do something to increase that probability....ok a strategy is a sequence of moves...a "good" strategy is one that increases the probability you win.
Those of us accused of being pot smoking protesters...
Once again the math. Somoene else pointed out it is easier to defend than attack.
IF you fight an even battle there is little expectation you will win, win by enough to be able to capitalise on it.
IIRC my first game HRE/Otts fight, both sides with double digit armies, both close to wiped out after the first battle. Both rolled really well.
If you fight a battle 9 to 9 and you get 3 hits and the other guy 2, what's the next step?
It costs 1 CP to move forward, it costs 1 cp to build a merc.
Fight your battles on you opponent's move, so that you can pursue/he can't, but we have all known that since at least 1994.
The argument from us pseudo peaceniks is to increase your probability of winning by going to war, you need some advantage. Well if you have it, well then go to war. Also, unless you win very quickly/suddenly, why aren't other players ganging up on you to keep you from winning?
A friend of mine went to West Point, one of his history books started with, "Wars are frequently started because somebody miscalculates..."
You have some really good hand, but may be your opponent does too, swipes that card from our hand...Spanish Pay Ships, Knights of St. John...even your so called friends will take cards from you...witchcraft...if your winning why don't they target you?
What is the calculus of patronage that it is just 50/50?
What is the calculus of war that it is better than 50/50?